Rick Tumlinson recently shared an op-ed he wrote for Scientific American. I have always respected Rick and his exquisite writing style, and I agree 100% with his general arguments so eloquently put forth in his op-ed. However, I just wanted to clarify one sentence: “The Titan disaster … occurred in a mature industry with a heretofore flawless record.”

This statement–which the mass media has flaunted incessantly since last summer–is factually mostly correct but intentionally misleading. Just like with space, the ocean world is much more nuanced and requires some advanced knowledge and critical thinking in order to truly compare “apples to apples” instead of “apples to tractor tires”.

Generally speaking, the submersible world is divided into 3 broad categories:

(1) shallow (less than 100m) tourist submersibles;

(2) deeper (less than 1,000m) recreational and science submersibles; and

(3) deep sea (down to 11,000m) exploration and science submersibles.

In terms of risk, regulation, and “industry maturity”, this paradigm would map roughly to (1) aviation, (2) sub-orbital, and (3) orbital/cislunar/interplanetary.

Under this structure, the shallow/tourist submersible world is certainly a “mature industry”, with hundreds of submersibles taking millions of passengers safely underwater over the past several decades. And … with a near-perfect safety record (at least much better than commercial aviation!).

The deeper-diving submersible world is likewise quite “mature”, with dozens of submersibles carrying thousands of owners (most of these subs are privately owned) and some scientists in relative safety also over the past several decades. Ironically, the industry does not have a “flawless record”, but admittedly the last fatality occurred 50 years ago.

However, OceanGate designed Titan to operate at depths to 4,000m, which puts it squarely in the last category of deep-sea submersibles.

This is certainly NOT a “mature” industry, with only ~12 current subs IN THE WORLD able to reach these depths (and most of those are government-owned). The total number of human beings who have EVER reached those depths is so small that no one has bothered to track them. I’m guessing that the number is not much greater than the total number of humans who have ever flown to space (i.e., less than 1,000).

Yes, this segment of the industry had a “heretofore flawless record” prior to last summer. However, as Rick mentions several times in his op-ed with regard to orbital spaceflight, that was always bound to change as companies and explorers pushed further into the vast ocean depths.

I certainly respect every person’s right to disagree with OceanGate’s design and operations approach or with its decision to carry paying passengers on an admittedly experimental submersible. Even I had my own reservations. However, I would ask that we also respect the fact that the company was trying to expand the boundaries of humanity’s understanding of its precious Homeworld by pushing the limits of what is currently technologically possible.

One more note on the regulatory aspects of this purported “mature industry”.

There is a very good reason why there are almost no submersibles (American or otherwise) operating in US waters: there are virtually no regulations governing this type of underwater vessel.

The US Coast Guard allows exactly TWO types of submersible operations in US waters: (1) shallow diving commercial/tourist submersibles; and (2) deeper-diving submersibles operating as “Oceanographic Research Vessels” (or “ORVs”).

Under (1), there are currently only 3 submersibles operating in US waters–all owned by the same company (Atlantis Submarines) and operating in Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan.

Under (2), the only “crew” allowed onboard are the submersible’s owners, its pilot(s), and the science team, so missions like this are few and far between.

Again, this lack of government regulation is a direct reflection of the fact that this is NOT, by any stretch, a “mature” industry.

Like I said at the start, I agree 100% with Rick Tumlinson on the general arguments that individuals should be allowed to choose the risks they take with their own lives, whether in space or in the ocean. I just wanted to clarify this one particular sentence, since it has been a sore point with me from the general mass media coverage stemming from last summer’s Titan tragedy.